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Australia trims 2020-21 LNG export forecasts on COVID-19, production issues

By Unknown
Australia has cut forecasts for the country's LNG exports for 2020-2021 (July-June) by some 6% to 75.6 million mt, citing the expected impacts of both the COVID-19 pandemic and domestic technical issues.

If realized, the forecast for the current fiscal would see volumes fall by 3.7 million mt year on year. They are expected to recover in 2021-2022 to 80.1 million mt, the Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources said Sept. 28 in a report.

In the December edition of the report, which came out prior to the widespread impacts of COVID-19, the department had forecast 2020-2021 Australian LNG exports to be as high as 81.3 million mt.

The latest edition noted that Australia's average capacity utilization is expected to fall in calendar 2020 on the back of some buyers having exercised rights to reduce contracted purchases by around 10%. Some of these volumes have been replaced by cheaper spot cargoes, it noted.

"Cargoes have also been delayed, several plants have undergone extended maintenance, and two LNG plants have faced technical issues," the report said.

Shell's Prelude FLNG has been shut since February due to technical issues and while the company has said the process to restart operations has begun, there has not been an official restart date set. The project, which shipped its first cargo in June last year, had still been ramping up to its nameplate capacity of 3.6 million mt, the Canberra-based unit said.

The other project facing issues is Chevron's Gorgon LNG, which is undergoing phased shutdowns because of the discovery in cracks in its heat exchangers.

"There is a risk of extended shutdowns in further cracks are discovered in these trains," the department said.

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